April 2023 Market Stats with John Barker

Sell now or sell later? Buy now or wait? How are the stats trending?

As we get ready to close out Quarter 1 of 2023, I like to look over the statistics and make some predictions for the rest of the year. At this time of the month, I usually look at the monthly stats recap that compares the numbers year over year. Right now, I am not as focused at looking at how March 2023 compares to March 2022. Last year at this time we were coming out of a huge boom cycle and interest rates were starting to climb fast. That is not typical, nor do I think it is a good predictor of what the rest of 2023 will bring. Instead, I shifted my focus to what the numbers are showing us for the past 2 quarters. Despite the gloomy economy with inflation and job layoffs the stats show that home sales are slightly trending back from the very, very slow 4th quarter of 2022.

Are they back to pre 2022 numbers? No.

Will they be back there soon? Again, I think no.

Interest rates, while lower than Q4 of 2022 are at around 6% right now. That will keep many people in their lower interest home loans from the prior 5-10 years, putting off making a move. That means less inventory. That can be a good thing if you are a seller, less competition. But that can equally be bad for a buyer with fewer choices.

The market is showing signs of returning to a “normal” market.

The monthly stats are showing:

·       There were more closed transactions than the previous month.

·       Median sales prices were higher.

·       The actual sale prices are very close to asking or slightly above.

·       Days on the market are around 30 days, which is considered to be a more “normal” market time.

What does that mean? The crazy multi offer, escalator clause days are behind us for now. There is still some holdback on inventory as people are still awaiting the spring market which historically is the strongest selling season.

If you have a need or a desire to sell in 2023, what would I advise?

I would not wait because:

·       Mortgage interest rates now hover close to 6%, an improvement from previous months.

·       The possibility of a recession in the second half of 2023 remains.

·       Spring as I mentioned is historically the strongest selling season, homes tend to sell for more during the strong selling season.

·       Selling your home creates a taxable event. Consult with your tax advisor or accountant regarding your potential capital gains and how that works with your whole financial plan for the year. Selling for less than a few years ago might actually work in your favor, you need to look at the big picture of your taxes, gains, income, etc.

I think we will continue to see a slight upward trend for the balance of 2023. I do not think we will see a strong rush of inventory or a robust recovery of prices. The bottom line is that people always need to move, and economic reasons are only one factor in their decision.

If you need help working out a plan for buying or selling, I am happy to sit down with you and work out the details.

These stats are from the tri county area of King, Snohomish and Pierce, where most of my clients live. If you live outside this area and have questions or wish to see the statistics from your county, contact me and I will forward that to you.

John Barker 425.830.0241 john@johnbarker.net